UNICORN directly tackles the current emergency management challenges and presents innovative solutions to ensure swift, accurate, and actionable impact towards better preparedness of local authorities, citizens and industries, and businesses for more frequent extreme events, geohazards, and insurance costs.
UNICORN's foundation is laid on the development of four strategically selected Copernicus emergency applications corresponding in 4 use cases which incorporate specific areas, regions, and countries from the Mediterranean area of Europe that have a long history of natural hazards and extreme events.
These use cases through which the applications are implemented, monitored, and validated in real-world conditions are diverse due to the scale of operation (local, regional, and sub-national), the hazards, the type of engaged stakeholders, and the applied technologies.
Use Case #1
Flood events in urban and peri-urban areas pose significant risks to lives, infrastructure, and economic stability, particularly in flash flood prone regions like Mandra in Attica, Greece, which was affected by a fatal flash flood in 2017 with 24 recorded fatalities. Use Case #1 is based on existing flood forecasting methodologies by integrating high-resolution WRF-ARW weather forecasts (2×2 km grid) by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, Copernicus soil moisture data from Copernicus Land Service, and in-situ observations (real-time precipitation and water level) from three hydrometeorological telemetric stations supplemented by crowdsourcing data, to determine the best-fit scenario from pre-run hydrological and hydraulic simulations using the updated Curve Numbers (CN) and high-resolution DEM (2 m). The system provides flood extent and depth mapping for the next two days without requiring real-time hydrological and hydraulic modeling execution. This approach ensures rapid scenario matching, enabling civil protection agencies and first responders to make data-driven decisions during flood events. The fusion of COPERNICUS Earth Observation data, real-time hydro-meteorological measurements, and advanced computing improves flood prediction accuracy and provides critical insights for early warnings, infrastructure protection, and emergency response in flood-risk areas.
Use Case #2A
Use Case #2A focuses on developing an innovative wildfire management system for Corsica Island, France, specifically tested in the North Corsica region affected by the 2017 Olmeta di Tuda fire. The system implements a three-tier approach: rapid wildfire detection using AI classification algorithms on multi-source satellite data (MODIS, VIIRS, Sentinel-3, Meteosat), precise delineation of burned areas with impact assessment on population and infrastructure using Sentinel-2, and a fire propagation nowcasting leveraging weather forecasts and AI-processed land cover data. The service engages local stakeholders, including SIS2B, forest services, and emergency responders, while utilizing Copernicus data and advanced AI models to enhance decision-making in fire suppression strategies.
Use Case #2B
In contrast to other natural hazards, wildfires in Europe are predominantly anthropogenic in origin. It is important to engage in collaborative efforts with public and private institutions to monitor the risk within combustible forests, particularly in reforested areas, as emphasized by the EU Forest Strategy. Use Case #2B proposes a comprehensive analysis of wildfire danger and risk estimation for specific regions and their environments, integrating analyses of measures aimed at reducing risk, involvement of the insurance sector, and the examination of real-case scenarios in reforested areas. The focus is the north-western region of the Iberian Peninsula, characterized by a diverse landscape encompassing both public and private forested areas, including zones undergoing reforestation efforts. Data science is combined with Artificial Intelligence, High-Performance Computing, and geographic information systems to analyse our capability to predict the potential of ignition in the area of interest.
Use Case #3
Lava flows are an unstoppable force of nature and threaten the built environment at many volcanoes around the world, as recently demonstrated in eruptions on La Palma, Hawaii, and Iceland. Use Case #3 aims to develop a prototype for a comprehensive emergency management tool for lava flows, using Europe’s most active volcano Etna (Sicily, Italy) as a case study. The tool will comprise lava flow alerts, satellite-based flow monitoring, lava flow simulations, as well as modelled loss forecasts for ongoing eruptions. This data can be used by emergency managers, governments, and local businesses for better preparedness and disaster management in eruptive crises. Furthermore, it can serve as a calculation agent in parametric insurance structures and thus be a valuable tool for (re)insurance companies.
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